#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota vs Seattle, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - Both of these teams were shutout yesterday which gives us some value here. We have this total set closer to 9 with our power ratings. Prior to yesterday’s 6-0 loss vs Tampa Bay, the Twins were averaging almost 7 RPG their prior 8 contests. Before Sunday’s 2-0 loss vs Boston, the Mariners were averaging almost 5 RPG their previous 9 games. Both teams are averaging more than 8.5 total RPG this season in their contests and over the last 10 games Minnesota games are averaging 11.6 total RPG and Seattle games are averaging 9.2 total RPG. Each starter is due for a regression as their ERA’s are lower than both their xERA’s and xFIP’s. Minnesota’s Archer has an xFIP of 5.10 and Seattle’s Flexen has an xFIP of 4.98 which is a solid indicator that neither is pitching as well as their actual ERA’s might indicate. Current players on both teams are hitting over .300 lifetime vs each of these 2 starting pitchers. Flexen has faced Minnesota once this season and allowed 3 ER’s in 4 innings allowing 5 hits and 3 walks. Archer has not faced Seattle yet this season. Both bullpens rank in the bottom half of MLB in ERA and Minnesota relievers have allowed the 2nd most HR’s this season (36) while the Seattle bullpen has allowed the 4th most (32). We like this game to get to at least 9 total runs.