#403 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played at the Cowboys home stadium on Saturday. Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We’ve been unimpressed with A&M this season and feel they are drastically overvalued right now. We were on them in a perfect spot a few weeks ago when they played host to App State who was coming off 63-61 loss to UNC a week earlier. The Heels rolled up huge numbers vs the App State defense yet A&M at home was only able to score 14 points on 186 total yards. That speaks volumes to how this Aggie offense is struggling right now. They followed that loss up last week with a 17-9 win over Miami FL in which TAMU had only 265 total yards. Thus, in their 2 games since beating Sam Houston State to open the season, the Aggies have scored 31 total points on just 451 total yards. They’ve been outgained by a combined 257 total yards in those 2 games. They’ve allowed 49 first downs in those 2 games while accumulating just 25 first downs offensively. A&M has already made a switch at QB from Haynes to Johnson, but the stats haven’t been great for either. Johnson started last week and completed just 50% of his passes in a game A&M was also outplayed in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining only 3.9 YPC on offense. It was a game the Canes should have won and we’re getting some value here because the Aggies won on the scoreboard. While their offense is struggling, the Razorbacks are not. Last week they struggled a bit in a letdown spot with Missouri State but still put up big numbers. Despite their -3 turnover ratio for the game, the Razors won and put up 600 total yards. They’ve now rolled up 447, 462, and 600 yards in their 3 games to go along with 113 total points (37.6 PPG). Two of those games were vs Cincinnati and South Carolina so we’re not talking about cupcake city here. Arkansas will control the trenches as they’ve outgained their opponents by 500+ yards on the ground this season while the Aggies have been outgained in the run game by 140 yards. Last year when these 2 met A&M was a 4 point favorite and Arkansas won the game by 10 points outgaining the Aggies by 170 total yards. We don’t see anything changing here. TAMU is talented but still quite young and we like Arkansas, who has a much better QB situation with Jefferson (770 yards passing / 170 yards rushing / 9 TD’s this year) to win again.