#471/472 ASA FREE PLAY ON Under 40 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - The defenses are the strength of both teams in his match up. San Francisco’s defense ranks #1 in the NFL DVOA per Football Outsiders and Carolina is 12th. On offense these teams rank 21st and 31st DVOA respectively. SF ranks #1 in the NFL in PPG allowed at 11.5 and they have not given up more than 19 in any game this season. 3 of their 4 opponents have scored 11 points or fewer. Carolina’s offense will have big problems in this game. The stats say they average 19 PPG which isn’t great and puts them at 17th in the NFL in scoring. However if we subtract their defensive TD’s, the Panthers would be averaging just 16 PPG and QB Mayfield has the worst QBR in the league thus far. The Niner offense put up 24 points last week vs the Rams but 7 of those came from the defense so only 17 points by the offense. In 2 of their 3 games prior to last week SF put up 10 points or fewer. Neither of these teams get it done through the air with Carolina ranking 30th in YPG passing and SF ranking 24th. These teams have played 8 total games this season and 7 have gone Under the total. This total and spread suggest and 23-16 final score in favor of San Francisco and we don’t see either team reaching their designated point total. Under is the play here.