#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -7 vs Miami Dolphins, Saturday 8:15pm ET - At first look this may seem to be a lot of points to lay in a divisional showdown, but in reality, it’s not. Consider the Bills were minus -4-points in Miami earlier this season which should have them as double-digit favorite in this game. Buffalo lost the first encounter this season despite outplaying the Phins by a wide margin. Buffalo had 497 total yards in the game to Miami’s 212 yards. The Bills had twice as many first downs (31-15), nearly 3 times the rushing yards (115-41) and 382 passing yards to the Dolphins 171, yet still lost. The Bills blew numerous red zone chances and essentially handed Miami the win. Things will be different this time around as the Bills are at home, in a cold, windy and wet environment. This Miami team that has played four straight games in warm weather are also playing their 3rd road game in as many weeks. After putting up some gaudy offensive numbers against four weak defenses in a row, the Phins were brought back to Earth against the 49ers and Chargers the past two weeks. Today they get a Bills defense that is nearly as good as the 49ers in terms of efficiency. The Bills offense is 2nd in yards per game gained, 6th in passing, 8th in rushing and score the 4th most points in the NFL. Miami is 20th in YPG allowed, 23rd vs. the pass and give up 24PPG which ranks them 23rd. Buffalo has covered 7 of the last ten meetings at home and have the best home point differential in the NFL at +16.8PPG on their home field. In this payback setting we like the Bills big.