#402 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +3 -115 over Kansas City Chiefs, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - We were on Houston last week vs KC and picked up a loss with KC winning 27-19 as a 3.5 point home favorite. The yardage was dead even in that game (5.8 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but Houston had 2 turnovers (0 for KC) which was the difference. The turning point in that game happened in the 3rd quarter when Houston scored to seemingly tie the game at 17-16 (they missed the XP) but the Texans lost top WR Dell on a gruesome injury on that TD. Houston QB Stroud admitted that he wasn’t very focused on the game moving forward after the injury which was evident as the Texans had only 48 total yards from that point on (11:00 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter). Now the Chiefs are in a tough spot traveling on a very short week to Pittsburgh to face a motivated Steelers team that is coming off 2 losses to Philadelphia and Baltimore. Both teams are on an extremely tough stretch of 3 games in 11 days which heavily favors the home team on our opinion. Pitt was on the road in those recent 2 losses with spreads of +5.5 @ Philly and +6.5 or +7 @ Baltimore. Those numbers would tell us that if Pitt had hosted those games they would have been right around a pick-em vs the Eagles and +1 or +1.5 vs the Ravens. Now they are getting a full FG vs KC who despite their record, we (and others in the industry) have rated lower than both of those teams. NFL DVOA has Baltimore rated #1 in the NFL, Philly #5 and KC #7 as another reference point. Just 2 weeks ago the Chiefs were favored by -4.5 @ Cleveland and now laying nearly that number @ Pittsburgh? Either way, too many points here. Especially with Pittsburgh getting healthy. Top WR Pickens missed the last 2 games and has a solid chance to play here along with some key defensive players that have been banged up. KC continues to have the best record in the NFL despite being outgained on the season (-0.1 YPP). Their point differential is just 9th in the NFL and they are averaging just 5.0 YPP and 328 YPG on the road this season. Pitt was 5-0 ATS as a dog this year prior to their last 2 contests (now 5-2) and dating back to the start of the 2018 season they are 11-3-2 ATS as a home dog. We like Pittsburgh on Xmas Day!