#268 ASA PLAY ON Boise State +11 over Penn State, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET – FIESTA BOWL @ Phoenix - Our power ratings have PSU favored just over a TD here so getting double digits is some solid value. Penn State rolled in their home game vs SMU but that game turned on it’s head early with the Nittany Lions scored on 2 pick 6’s early in the game to take a 14-0 lead. At that point in the game, PSU had 74 total yards and already led 14-0 due to the defensive TD’s. That changed the whole complexion of the game for SMU as they were fighting from 2 scores down the rest of the way. On top of that, we had a warm weather team in SMU who’s average temp in their games played this season (both home and away) was 72 degrees playing in brutal weather (windchill was in the teens). Now we get PSU away from home where they were great this season. They struggled away from Happy Valley barely getting by at Minnesota (won by 1), at Wisconsin (trailed at half), and needed OT to beat what turned out to be a pretty average USC team. If we subtract their game @ Purdue (one of the worst teams in the country), Penn State played 5 games away from Happy Valley this year and won by an average of 6 PPG. Much has been made of Boise’s lower strength of schedule but let’s not forget this team nearly beat Oregon (CFP #1 seed) on the road this season. They lost 37-34 but outgained the Ducks (remember this game was in Autzen Stadium) and OU scored on a kickoff return AND an 85-yard fumble return and still barely won. PSU also faced Oregon in the Big 10 Championship game and lost that game by 8 points. Boise has been lights out as an underdog with a 33-18 ATS record (65%) since 1999 and they’ll have the best offensive player on the field on Tuesday night with RB Jeanty. If they can have some success on the ground, which we think they will, the Broncos should stay in this the entire way. Too many points.