#284 ASA PLAY ON Penn State +1.5 over Notre Dame, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Georgia over Notre Dame last week and felt we were on the right side of that game and still do. Georgia outgained the Irish 300 to 244 and 4.9 YPP to 4.0 YPP. The Irish had zero passing game in that win (90 yards passing) and benefitted from a 98 yard kickoff return and 2 UGA turnovers. Not only did the Bulldogs have 2 turnovers (0 for Notre Dame) but they were very influential giveaways. One was inside the ND 15 yard line as UGA was driving for a TD or FG and the other was inside their own 15 very late in the first half which led to ND’s only offensive TD of the game on a 13 yard drive. Spanning the 1st and early 2nd half, the Irish scored 17 of their 23 points in a 54 second span with a FG, quick turnover by UGA into a short TD, and a kickoff return. This team did very little offensively and now they face a PSU defense that is every bit as good as Georgia’s defense. The Irish rely very heavily on the run but they are facing a PSU defense that is in the top 10 in both rushing YPG and YPC allowed. The Nittany Lions have allowed 166 yards in 2 playoff games (vs SMU and Boise) on just 2.1 YPC. Last week vs what most consider to be the best RB in college FB, they held Boise’s Ashton Jeanty to 3.5 YPC. We think Notre Dame struggles again offensively, especially with their #1 offensive threat, RB Love, banged up (only 6 carries for 19 yards last week). The Irish defense played well last week vs the run, back up UGA QB Stockton was successful with 234 yards passing. The Irish sold out against the run last week and may again this week and we trust PSU QB Allar to have a big game as well. While the defenses in this game are both high level, PSU’s offense is much more balanced with 203 YPG rushing and 234 YPG passing giving them a better chance to be successful on offense We have these teams rated almost dead even so not sure when ND is almost a 3 point favorite on this neutral field in Miami. The Irish have covered 10 in a row so that plays a role in this number. We’ll take the points with PSU.