#654 ASA PLAY ON Texas -2 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Longhorns are in desperate need of a conference win as they sit at 1-4 in SEC play. They’ve had a really rough schedule to start the season already having faced Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas A&M, 4 of the top 5 rated teams in the league. In their home games vs Auburn (#2 nationally per KenPom) and Tennessee (#6 nationally per KenPom) the Horns were extremely competitive losing by 5 & 4 points respectively. Missouri, on the other hand, sits at 4-1 in league play but they’ve already faced the 3 lowest rated teams in the SEC (Vandy, LSU and Arkansas). They do have an impressive conference win over Florida by 1 point but they were also rolled by 16 points vs Auburn. While we feel Texas is undervalued right now, we also feel that Mizzou is overvalued coming into this one on a 4 game winning streak with 3 of those coming at home. The Tigers have only played 3 true road games this season (1-2 record) and they’ve played all but 3 games this year (out of 18 games) in the state of Missouri. Going back to the start of last season, the Tigers are just 1-11 SU on the road in SEC games and their one win came by a single point. Their defense thrives on creating turnovers for extra possessions but they are facing a Texas offense that only turns it over 14% of the time (14th nationally) so that edge should be nullified in this game. The Tigers have also been shooting lights out in SEC play (41% from 3) which isn’t sustainable while Texas (ranked 28th in 3point FG% on the season) has made only 29% in conference play so almost a full 10% points below their season average. We expect both to regress toward their averages which would benefit Texas at home in this one. Very small spread here for the host and we’ll grab the Longhorns.