#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Under 159.5 Points – Auburn vs Florida, Saturday at 6 PM ET - These 2 met once this year in early February and that total was set at 156. The game was played @ Auburn and the Gators pulled off the 90-81 win pushing it Over the total. There were 74 possessions in that game but we expect a slower paced game here as most teams reign it in a bit this late in the season. Every possession is huge. These 2 have combined to average 69 possessions per game in their 8 NCAA tourney game which is below their average for the season. We don’t think this rematch gets anywhere near the 171 posted in the first game. This game is being played at the Alamo Dome which is a huge arena meant for football, not basketball. It’s a tough shooting venue which has hosted 4 other Final 4’s and the average total points scored here in those previous games was 146. Of the 12 games played in the Final 4 and National Championship game at the Alamo Dome, only 2 reached 160+ total points. These 2 defenses are elite. They both rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Auburn’s offense has posted PPP numbers (offensive efficiency) below their season average for 8 consecutive games. Defensively they have not allowed more than 70 points in this tourney. The Gators have been held under their PPP season average on offense in 4 of their last 5 games but they’ve held each of their opponents in this tourney below their offensive efficiency average. Once you hit the Final 4, it’s really tough for both teams to put up big offensive numbers in a game. In fact, over the last 15 seasons, there have been 45 Final 4 & National Championship games and only FOUR have reached 160+ total points. Both teams being from the SEC, they know each other very well and we don’t think either team gets to 80 points which keeps this Under the total.