#679/680 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Houston vs Duke, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - These 2 met in the Sweet 16 last season and it was a 56 possession grinder with Duke coming out on top 54-51. While we don’t expect the scoring to be that low in this one, we still anticipate a low possession game with 2 very high level defenses that will lead to an Under in this one. Houston ranks as the #1 defense in the nation (efficiency) and they allow only 58 PPG which is also #1 nationally. They have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 60 points or less including Purdue (7th nationally in offensive efficiency) and Tennessee (17th). The Big 12 had 5 teams ranked in the top 20 in offensive efficiency and Houston played 9 games vs those opponents. Only 1 topped 65 points in those 9 games and those teams averaged 61 PPG vs Houston. We don’t expect them to hold Duke, the #1 offense in efficiency, to those numbers but we also don’t look for the Devils to go wild offensively in this one. The Blue Devils have fantastic offensive numbers but they’ve played a very weak schedule of defensive teams this season which lends to those stats. They haven’t faced a team in the NCAA tourney that is ranked in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and the only ACC team that ranks in the top 20 in that metric was Clemson (17th) who held the Devils to 71 points. What doesn’t get talked about enough is how good Duke is defensively. They rank 4th in the country in efficiency and 7th in PPG allowed (62 PPG). They have held 3 of their 4 tourney opponents to 66 points or fewer including limiting the #1 scoring team in the country, Alabama, to only 65 points in their most recent game. That’s the same Bama team that was averaging 91 PPG on the season and had scored 90, 80, and 113 points in their first 3 NCAA games before hitting a wall vs this Duke defense. The Blue Devils have played 38 games this season and have allowed more than 70 points only 7 times. As we stated, we expect a low possession game as Houston is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and Duke is a slower paced team this season as well (268th). Both defenses make opponents work incredibly hard for shots with Houston’s opponents getting a shot off every 18.7 seconds (12th longest in the country) and Duke’s opponents every 19 seconds (5th longest). A tough shooting venue in the Alamo Dome and we like the Under here.