#963/964 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays, Friday at 8 PM ET - We love the set up here for runs. The Rays have been running hot and are off a 10-8 win and should continue scoring well here. The Rangers have been on the cold side but much of that was on the road and they had still been scoring runs well in home games prior to yesterday's loss. Before the 3-1 July 4th loss, overall Texas had scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 4 preceding games. In looking just at home games, the Rangers - prior to the Thursday loss - had scored 5.4 runs per game last 7 home games. That said, we like the value here with this total at 8.5 runs. Shane Baz is expected to start for the Rays and is making his first MLB appearance since 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. He had some ups and downs at the minor league level leading up to this start. We like the Rangers to get to him at home and we also expect the Rays to match them run for run as they remain hot at the plate. Part of the key to Tampa Bay having won 11 of 16 games is they have averaged 5.2 runs scored during this stretch. They catch the Rangers Mike Lorenzen off a tough start. Though he is a righty, he has struggled against right-handed hitters more than lefties both this season and last season. Righties hitting almost .300 against him this season! The Rays top 6 guys for doubles this season are all right-handed hitters and 6 of their top 8 RBI guys this season are right-handed bats. We like the odds on TB hitting Lorenzen well here. Also, these two bullpens rank 21st and 26th for relievers ERA this season! That combination of factors above will help to turn this into a high-scoring back and forth battle. Over is the call in this one Friday evening.