PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NFL Saturday Big Ticket
(NFL) Commanders (WAS) vs. Lions (DET),
Point Spread: 9.50 | -110.00 Commanders (WAS) (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 9.50 | -110.00 Commanders (WAS) (Away)
Result: Win
Jayden Daniels and an improved defense are why I believe the Commanders can stay within single digits of the Lions.
Daniels certainly has good numbers. But he transcends numbers. His dual threat talents and intangibles make him a formidable foe. He has led five fourth-quarter comebacks. Only once this season did the Lions encounter a quarterback of similar superstar ability. That quarterback was Josh Allen and he helped Buffalo put up 48 points and 559 yards of offense.
Multiple injuries have taken a toll on Detroit's defense. During Weeks 15 to 17, the Lions surrendered an average of 361.6 passing yards. From Week 13, the Lions defense ranked 28th in the metric EPA (expected points added). Detroit has become less opportunistic coming up with just five takeaways during its last seven games. Stopping Sam Darnold in Week 18 does not equate to being able to stop Daniels.
Washington's defense has gotten better with cornerback Marshon Lattimore and defensive lineman Jonathan Allen back in the lineup after being out for long periods because of injuries. Lattimore is an elite cornerback, while Allen is the Commanders' top defensive lineman. Frankie Luvu gives the Commanders the best linebacker on the field.
The Commanders have bad season numbers on defense. Those are irrelevant now, though, with Lattimore and Allen in the lineup. The Buccaneers found this out the hard way last week when the Commanders held them 20 points, which was 9 1/2 points below their season average.
I like Detroit's special teams. They are above average. Yet I give a checkmark to the Commanders' special teams. Washington ranked in the top-10 in kick-and-punt return average and placed second in punt return defense. Tress Way is one of the best punters in the NFL.
This is the most points the Commanders have received all year. This shows the marketplace still hasn't caught up to Daniels and Washington. So I'm a buyer.
Daniels certainly has good numbers. But he transcends numbers. His dual threat talents and intangibles make him a formidable foe. He has led five fourth-quarter comebacks. Only once this season did the Lions encounter a quarterback of similar superstar ability. That quarterback was Josh Allen and he helped Buffalo put up 48 points and 559 yards of offense.
Multiple injuries have taken a toll on Detroit's defense. During Weeks 15 to 17, the Lions surrendered an average of 361.6 passing yards. From Week 13, the Lions defense ranked 28th in the metric EPA (expected points added). Detroit has become less opportunistic coming up with just five takeaways during its last seven games. Stopping Sam Darnold in Week 18 does not equate to being able to stop Daniels.
Washington's defense has gotten better with cornerback Marshon Lattimore and defensive lineman Jonathan Allen back in the lineup after being out for long periods because of injuries. Lattimore is an elite cornerback, while Allen is the Commanders' top defensive lineman. Frankie Luvu gives the Commanders the best linebacker on the field.
The Commanders have bad season numbers on defense. Those are irrelevant now, though, with Lattimore and Allen in the lineup. The Buccaneers found this out the hard way last week when the Commanders held them 20 points, which was 9 1/2 points below their season average.
I like Detroit's special teams. They are above average. Yet I give a checkmark to the Commanders' special teams. Washington ranked in the top-10 in kick-and-punt return average and placed second in punt return defense. Tress Way is one of the best punters in the NFL.
This is the most points the Commanders have received all year. This shows the marketplace still hasn't caught up to Daniels and Washington. So I'm a buyer.
