At some point the Chiefs' luck is going to run out. I just don't believe it's going to happen here. So I'm laying a short price on the money line expecting Kansas City to once again win. That simple.

Yeah, Buffalo defeated Kansas City at home during the regular season. But this is the AFC Championship matchup, a game the Chiefs have now reached seven straight years.

Patrick Mahomes is 16-3 in the playoffs. This includes a 3-0 mark against Josh Allen and Buffalo. The Chiefs got past the Bills, 27-24, in the divisional round last season. That game was at Buffalo, too.

Now the Chiefs get the Bills at home, where they are unbeaten, and have an extra day's rest.

It's not just situation and history why I favor the Chiefs.

Kansas City has the superior defense. The Chiefs are finally healthy and Mahomes' weapons are better than Allen's, particularly at tight end with Travis Kelce.

Only three teams surrendered fewer points per game than Kansas City. Buffalo ranked 12th in scoring defense, 17th in yards allowed and 24th in pass defense. The Bills relied on an NFL-best plus 24 turnover differential.

But if the Bills are not coming up with takeaways their defense is far more vulnerable than Kansas City's. The Chiefs haven't turned the ball over during their last eight games. They tied for the fourth-fewest giveaways.

Buffalo was plus 3 in takeaways/giveaways against the Ravens at home last week yet still needed a dropped Mark Andrews pass on a wide open two-point conversion to likely avoid overtime.