We really like the Phillies in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how hot they've been in recent weeks, and how Aaron Nola has bounced back after a shaky start to the season. Nola has allowed just one run on seven hits with 14 strikeouts over 13 innings across his last two starts, and we expect him to keep rolling here, which also sets up well for an under.

This is a 3% play on the under.