The NBA Finals game 4 Play is on the LA. Lakers at 9:00 eastern. Teams in game 4 that lost game 3 after winning games one and two are 12-7 in true road games. The Lakers were flat compared to games one and two and Davis was in foul trouble. The NBA has to be happy the Heat were able to albeit with a little help make a series of it. Jimmy Butler was basically allowed to score one one one most of the game. Tonight will be a bit different and the Lakers should return to form. Now we hit the database and note that the Heat are 1-13 ats off a spread win of 14 or more. For a perfect system we see that non conference rested favorites of 5 or more with a 200+ total that failed to cover by 10 or more and allowed 110 or more have COVERED EVERY TIME SINCE 1995 vs an opponent off a spread win by 10 or more as a dog in their last game. The average win score i 115-96. Look for the Lakers to cover and go up 3-1