This is a BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER Northwestern/Michigan.

I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is based upon what I perceive to be a great "situation."

Northwestern is 11-6 after breaking a three-game slide with a tight 76-74 OT win at home over Maryland. The Wildcats have now seen the total go OVER in six straight. Note though that despite the OT win last time out, Northwestern has STILL seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. Expect fatigue to be an issue for the Wildcats on the road here.

Michigan is now 13-4 after an exhausting 84-81 OT loss at Minnesota as a 10.5-point favorite. That result is important to take note of though, as the Wolverines have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after a a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite. Also in six of their last eight after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

This line is now inflated in my opinion. I see each side doubling down defensively here because of the reasons listed above, making this O/U line much too high.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP