This is a 10* play on Florida State.

I played this line pretty much right when it came out and got 9.5 and it's since come down a bit from then, but regardless, with more than a month off to prepare for Oregon's high-octane offense, I think the FSU defense will prove to be a difference maker today and expect the Seminoles to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This game features the countries top two QB's, the Ducks Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy this season, while FSU's Jameis Winston won it last year. Mariota was clearly the best QB in 2014, but the fact remains that Winston has not lost a single game in two years. Florida State though would finish with a 3-10 record ATS, which I think helped in inflating this line. The Ducks would lose early, but Oregon's overall difficulty of schedule is the reason for its No. 1 ranking. Florida State was deceptively good this year though, it's never easy to win at this level, but note that the Noles finished 29th in points per game and 30th in scoring defense. Florida State has won in shootouts and in defensive affairs, it's ability to adapt to any situation is a big reason why the team is undefeated in two years. Oregon finished one spot ahead of FSU in scoring defense, but I think will be surprised today by the Seminoles versatility on the offensive side of the ball. While I won't be so bold to predict an outright upset, I do think that FLORIDA STATE has the necessary weapons to hang with the Ducks and look for this one to come down to the wire.

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