AAA's Tuesday Night Sun Belt TOTAL "ASSASSIN!" (+$17K NCAAF RUN!)
(NCAAF) Arkansas State vs. South Alabama,
Total: 58.50 | -105.00 Over
Result: Loss
This is an 8* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Arkansas State and South Alabama.

For the most part we base our Over/Under selections in all sports on situations and trends and that's the case on Tuesday night, for a couple of different reasons in our professional opinion all signs do indeed point to the lower number as the savvy move. The Arkansas State Red Wolves have yet to win on the road, QB James Tabary has completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 788 yards with four TD's, but he's also thrown six INT's. Not a recipe for success and because of Tabary's struggles, we're expecting to see a heavy-dose of the run game from the Red Wolves, who have actually averaged 192.8 yards per contest on the ground thus far with Michael Gordon leading the way with 455 yards and five TD's. Like South Alabama though, ASU's weakness is on the defensive side of the ball where the team has allowed an average of 32.2 points per game (thus far!). The Jaguars are led by QB Cody Clements, who isn't nearly as efficient as Tabary, completing 51.9 percent of his passes for 1,131 yards, seven major scores and six INT's. South Alabama will also be leaning on its run game today, so far it's averaged 137.8 yards per game, led by Xavier Johnson who has 411 yards and four TD's. Inclement weather is expected leading up to the contest; also note that Arkansas State has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 13 on the road, while South Alabama has seen the total stay below the posted number in eight of its last 13 at home, in ten of its last 15 vs. conference opponents and in five of its last seven following a victory over a conference rival. This number is just a little high, play on the UNDER.

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