The Duke Blue Devils are coming off an impressive win over Michigan State, but they'll face the "Giant Killers" from Wisconsin in the NCAA Final. These two teams both scored a lot of points in their Final Four match-ups, and because of that we see a pretty high number for the total in this game. I think the value lies with a play on the under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Defense - The Blue Devils have only allowed the opposition to average 55 points in five games in the NCAA Tournament. The Badgers have not been as effective on the defensive side of the ball in the tournament, but during the season they allowed an average of just 57.9 points per game. Wisconsin did an excellent job defending Kentucky's big men on Saturday, and that might not bode well for Jahlil Okafor in the Final. Okafor only scored 13 points when these teams met in the regular season.

2. The Venue - There has been a lot of talk of how playing a basketball game in a football stadium can effect shooters. While it didn't slow down Wisconsin at Lucas Oil Stadium, the evidence as a whole overwhelmingly suggests that there is a negative effect on shooting percentages. "The worst (shooting background) we played in as a coach," said Calipari, referring to a venue in Houston. "That was hard. Every team shot 30 percent. It was crazy."

3. X-Factor - Duke has seen the total go under in 19 of it's last 26 neutral site games.

Selection: This is a play on Wisconsin/Duke to go UNDER the total (10*)