The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Mets in Game 1 of a four game series at Chase Field tonight, and the visitors will be a favorite with their ace on the mound. The Mets trail Washington by just a half a game in the NL East, and I like their chances of taking advantage of this favorable match-up in Arizona tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Jeremy Hellickson will be on the hill for the home team, and he's struggled most of the season. Hellickson (3-3, 5.08 ERA) allowed two runs on five hits over six innings in a win at Milwaukee his last time out. He hasn't been very good at home, going 1-2 with a 6.58 ERA in five starts at Chase Field. The Mets counter with Matt Harvey, who tossed a shutout in his last start in Arizona.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Paul Goldschmidt is batting .349 with 15 home runs and 44 RBIs this season, but he's 0-for-3 lifetime versus Harvey, and he struck out in all of those three at bats.

3. X-Factor - Only the Cardinals bullpen owns a lower ERA than the Mets, who's relievers have posted a 2.57 ERA in 143 innings.

Selection: This is a play on the New York Mets (8*)