The Yankees and the Astros have split the first two games of this series in Houston, but I like the home team here in the rubber match this afternoon. The Astros have won seven of their last 10 at home, while the Yankees had lost five of six on the road prior to last night's win.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Astros will send Brett Oberholtzer to the mound Saturday, and the southpaw has been having a solid season so far. Oberholtzer (2-1, 2.81 ERA) shutout the Mariners through eight innings, surrendering just four hits in an 8-0 win in his last home start. He's 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA in three starts at Minute Maid Park, and Houston won all three of those games. The Yankees counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who was shelled for seven runs on 10 hits in five innings in a home loss to Detroit in his last outing.

2. Home Cookin' - The Yankees have a losing record on the road (19-20), and Houston owns a stellar home record of 24-15. The Bronx Bombers own the #2 ranked offense in the majors, but they've scored most of those runs at home. They are batting just .238 on the road, ranking 14th overall in runs scored.

3. X-Factor - The Astros are 7-3 in Oberholtzer's last 10 home starts.

Selection: This is a play on the Houston Astros (10*)