The Baltimore Orioles are coming into this contest on the back of three consecutive losses against the Yankees at New York. I think they'll have more success against this AL East rival as the Tampa Bay Rays have struggled since the All Star break.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Rays hand the ball to Chris Archer (9-7, 2.73 ERA) who's not been at his very best of late going 0-3 with a 5.61 ERA over his last four starts. He's posted a losing record home at Tampa Bay this season going 3-5 with a 3.13 ERA and has been reached for eight runs (seven earned) over 11 2/3 frames in two meetings with the Orioles. Baltimore will counter with Chris Tillman (7-7, 4.96 ERA) who's bounced back from a poor start to the season and is 5-0 with a 3.80 ERA over his last eight starts. He's 1-2 with a 3.93 ERA in three starts against the Rays for the year but with two strong outings at the Trop conceding only three runs over a total of 13 2/3 innings.

2. Situational - The Rays have lost seven of their last eight series-openers and they're coming off an off-day, a situation where they're 0-5 in their last five.

3. X-Factor - Baltimore's bullpen ranks among the best in baseball for the year with a 2.81 ERA.

Selection: This is a play on the Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (8*)