The New York Mets are coming into the series-finale eyeing a split of this four-game series at Dodger Stadium. They destroyed the Dodgers in a 15-2 win Saturday, and I like their chances of recording an upset today in what is likely to be a pitchers duel.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Dodgers hand the ball to Zack Greinke (9-2, 1.30 ERA) who's been lights out all season long, particularly of late coming off 43 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. He's had his routine disturbed now though as his scheduled start was pushed back two days due to him attending the birth of his child in L.A. The Mets will counter with Jacob deGrom (10-6, 2.18 ERA) who's been dominant this season as well. He's 7-2 with a 1.50 ERA over his last 11 starts and is coming off a pair of wins conceding only a total of two runs on five hits with 18 strikeouts over 14 innings.

2. Home Cookin' - The Mets are 33-16 home at Citi Field for the year and they're 11-4 in deGroms last 15 home starts. The Dodgers are 19-30 against the run line away from home.

3. X-Factor - Lucas Duda is 3-for-10 with a homer against Greinke lifetime and reached the seats not only once, but twice, yesterday.

Selection: This is a play on the New York Mets +1.5 (8*)