The Pittsburgh Pirates are owners of a Wild Card in the AL but might aim higher than that sitting 4.5 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central division title. They've won seven of their last eight and shut out the Giants in a 4-0 victory last night. I like the Giants in this match-up though as they should have a huge advantage on the mound.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Pirates hand the ball to Jeff Locke (6-7, 4.31 ERA) who's conceded four runs in each of his last three starts home at PNC Park for a 6.89 ERA. The 27 year old southpaw has failed to make it through six innings in each his last five starts overall for a 1-1 record and a 5.54 ERA. He has an 8.68 ERA in two career starts versus the Giants who will counter with Madison Bumgarner (14-6, 2.98 ERA). Mad Bum is off two complete games, allowing just one run on eight hits and one walk. He's riding a three-game winning streak behind a 0.73 ERA and he's 5-1 since the All-Star break, allowing one run or less in each of the victories. He threw a four-hit shutout at PNC Park on Oct. 1 in his last meeting with the Pirates.

2. Situational - The Giants are 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and have won 14 of Bumgarner's last 17 starts against a team with a winning record. The Pirates meanwhile are 2-5 in Lockes last seven starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.

3. X-Factor - Nori Aoki was 1-for-3 with a walk last night after seven days out of the lineup. He's 3-for-8 in previous at bats versus Locke.

Selection: This is a play on the San Francisco Giants (10*)