The Pirates saw their eight game winning streak halted by Jake Arrieta and the Cubs last night, and they host the Cardinals in Game 1 of a three game series at PNC Park tonight. With the Cardinals holding a three game lead in the NL Central, this series has the potential to decide the division. I like the home team in Game 1.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Pirates hand the ball to J.A. Happ, who has been sharp since coming over from Seattle. Happ (10-8, 3.88 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings in a win over the Rockies in Colorado in his last start. He won his only start versus the Cardinals, allowing just three hits through seven scoreless innings. St. Louis will counter with Lance Lynn, who has been hit hard by the Pirates. He's 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA in three starts versus Pittsburgh this season, and he's 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA in four starts in September.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Neil Walker is 14-for-38 (.368) with three home runs lifetime versus Lynn.

3. X-Factor - The Cardinals have lost five of their last six in Pittsburgh, and five straight when Lance Lynn starts versus the Pirates.

Selection: This is a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1* Free Pick)