The Kansas City Royals and the Toronto Blue Jays have split back-to-back slug-fests at Rogers Centre. The Royals have a commanding 3-1 lead in the series though and I think runs will come at a premium for both sides in this do-or-die game for the Jays.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Royals hand the ball to Edinson Volquez (13-9, 3.55 ERA) who tossed six scoreless innings of two-hit ball in the ALCS opener. He held Toronto to just three runs over 11 1/3 innings of work over two regular-season meetings as well and has done his best work in afternoon-games this season. The Blue Jays counter with Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA) who conceded three runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings when tossing opposite Volquez five days ago. He handled the Royals well over the two regular-season meetings though conceding only four runs over 12 1/3 frames.

2. Batter versus Pitcher - At first glance Volquez .268 BAA versus Toronto doesn't look that impressive, but he's handled their big bats well. Troy Tulowitzki is just 3-for-14 in previous meetings, Ben Revere is hit-less over eight at bats while Jose Bautista has just three hits over 17 at bats.

3. X-Factor - Six of Estrada's last eight home starts have gone under the total.

Selection: This is a play on KC@TOR to go under the total (10*)