The Georgia State Panthers are coming off a 31-19 upset win on the road at Ball State last week, and I think they'll carry that momentum into this week's game at Arkansas State. They are getting a bunch of points here, and I'll take the value with a play on the dog.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Nick Arbuckle - The Panthers quarterback had himself quite a game last week, throwing for 412 yards and a TD on 28-of-38 passing. He's thrown for 1202 yards with six TDs and three INTs in three starts on the road this year.

2. Previous History - The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

3. X-Factor - Red Wolves quarterback Fredi Knighten is completing just 45 percent of his passes this season, and he's thrown for just six TDs and four INTs.

Selection: This is a play on the Georgia State Panthers (8*)