At 1:10 ET, my Early Riser is on the NY Mets on the run-line. A trip across the pond will take some wind out of the Phillies' sails. Philadelphia has been playing great all season but the Mets are also hot right now. They've won 3 in a row. They scored 23 runs in those 3 games. They're ready for this challenge.

Only one of Suarez's last 6 starts against the Mets resulted in a win of more than 1 run. Only one of Manaea's last 8 starts overall resulted in a loss of more than 1 run. Manaea has made 2 starts against the Phillies. One was a 1-run loss. One was a 6-3 win. Manaea and the Mets have a great shot at the win this afternoon. A 1-run game is also a distinct possibility. The Phillies record allows us to get the 1.5 runs without having to pay a premium. Play on New York.