At 8:30 ET, my NBA Playoff TOY is on the Under in Game 1 Of the Finals. Thursday's game features two potent offenses capable of scoring rapidly. That's factored into what is an exceptionally high projected total. Too high, in my opinion. Last season’s NBA Finals opener had a total that opened at approximately 214 and closed at 217.5. I had a big play on the under, and the game concluded with 196 points. The first quarter was high-scoring with 57 points, but defenses tightened, with no subsequent quarter exceeding 48 points. Although this year’s teams differ, I believe the current total is inflated. The Oklahoma City Thunder boast an elite defense, ranking second in the regular season for fewest points allowed per game and first in the playoffs for limiting opponents’ field goal percentage. The Thunder demonstrated this prowess by holding Minnesota to 94 points in the final game of their series, 88 points in the series opener, and Memphis to 80 points in their first playoff game. The Pacers, while not as defensively dominant, have held opponents to 111 points or fewer in six of their last eight games. Look for the defenses to be better than advertised and the final score to stay beneath the big total. Play on the under.