(NCAAF) Baylor vs. Buffalo, 09/12/2014 4:00 PM, Score: 63 - 21
Total: 69.50 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
This is an 8* O/U SCORPION on the UNDER between Baylor and Buffalo.

I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Baylor and think the sharp wager in this contest is on Buffalo and for a number of different reasons, also expect this total to stay below the posted number. From a "situational" standpoint, this is a savvy move, it's been a cake-walk for Baylor so far, it's 2-0 to open the year, it would clobber SMU 45-0 in its opener and then annihilate Northwestern State 70-6 last weekend. Now the team plays on a short week, before a bye and a game at Iowa State on September 27th. Buffalo meanwhile looked solid in its 38-28 win over Duquesne in its opener, but then took a step back in last week's 47-39 loss to Army. While Buffalo will hardly expect to win this game, it knows that it can't get into a shootout, expect the team to play ball control while on offense and to do everything it can to negate Baylor's speed on the other side of the ball, expect a lot of double teaming on WR KD Cannon today who had three TD catches in the first quarter last week, the shortest one was for 42 yards (the longest 81). We know the Bears can score, they've won their two games by a combined 115-6; obviously we also need to focus on their defense, it's a sound unit and will have it first true test today. The Bears were led by backup QB Seth Russell last week, after starter Bryce Petty went out in the the first game with a back injury; Petty will be back under center today though. Baylor will be eager to avoid too many injuries here, look for it also to jump out to an early lead and then to take the foot off the gas and to rely on the run the rest of the way as Buffalo would give up an uncharacteristic 341 rushing yards to the Black Knights last Saturday; it's significant to note though that Buffalo has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 home games. And note that Baylor is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine on the road. I think the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to BUFFALO and the UNDER as the sharp wagers in this contest.

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