(MLB) Arizona vs. LA Dodgers, 07/04/2024 9:10 PM, Score: 9 - 3
Point Spread: 1.50 | -170.00 Arizona (Away)
Result: Win
10* D-Backs runline (NL WEST GOY)

Despite what happens between these clubs on Wednesday (as we're writing this pick on Wednesday afternoon), we love this particular pitching matchup and while we clearly feel an outright victory is possible, in the end we'll recommend to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. We feel this is a starting pitching mismatch that should in fact be more in favor of the visiting side here, with Landon Knack (1-1, 2.08 ERA) getting WAY too much respect from the oddsmakers in our estimation. Knack gave up one run on a no-decision over four innings vs. the Giants last time out. He's been great overall, but the sample size is still WAY too small for us and we say regression is now imminent. And that makes Arizona starter Zac Gallen (6-4, 2.83 ERA) the correct call in this matchup. Gallen enters on top form after allowing one hit and a walk with no runs and striking out seven over six in a victory over the A's on Saturday. With a 67:16 K:BB so far, we say that the wrong team is likely favored here. We bet totals, we bet underdogs, and we aren't afraid to lay chalk either. Overall we've come to the final conclusion that laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs is well worth it, making the Diamondbacks on the runline option our NL WEST GOY for 2024!

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