Point Spread: -2.50 | -110.00 Austin Peay (Home)
For a number of different strong trend based reasons, I think that the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night as it successfully pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. I expect the Trojans to come in a bit complacent here as well, they're in the midst of a three-game win streak (note, there is some room to read between the lines in those wins though, against Alcorn State, Central Arkansas and Fort Valley State repectively). And conversely, I think Austin Peay comes in highly focused, it's coming off three straight losses as the Governors would drop their first home game since mid-November in losing to Lipscomb 68-59 on Saturday. But as mentioned off the top, for the most part I have chosen this play because of some strong/lop-sided trends; note that Troy is already a poor 1-2 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog and only 1-2 ATS in non-conference games. And note that Austin Peay is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after three or more consecutive SU losses and 13-8 ATS in its last 21 vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, this line should in fact be a bit larger, indeed making AUSTIN PEAY the sharp move here.