AAA's 10* *Bucks/Bulls* Game 5 TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER (4-0 IN THIS SERIES!)
(NBA) Milwaukee vs. Chicago, 04/27/2015 4:00 PM, Score: 94 - 88
Total: 188.00 | -105.00 Over
Result: Win
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Chicago Bulls.

I played the OVER in Game 1, the UNDER in Game 2, the OVER in Game 2 and the UNDER in Game 4. I won't be flip-flopping in Game 5 though, in my opinion all signs do indeed once again point to a classic, low-scoring affair and ultimately expect this total to sneak below the posted number once the final horn blares. If you didn't have a chance to read the analysis from my Game 4 prediction, it's definitely worth a second look here as the reasoning behind that selection for the most part also directly applies to today's:

So far I have gone back and forth with my totals predictions in this series, I had the OVER in game 1, the UNDER in Game 2 and the OVER in Game 3. I think this strong pattern continues on Saturday, after Game 3's high-scoring affair, I believe we'll see a much slower paced contest once again in Game 4. The Bucks will be playing with desperation today as they look to avoid the dreaded sweep, salvaging even one game in front of the home town crowd would be huge for the organization, so with that in mind, I think we can expect Milwaukee to do what it does best, and that's play tight, aggressive, blanketing defense from start to finish and up and down the court: "You can only have so many moral victories," Bucks veteran Jared Dudley assessed last night. "So for us it's prepare with the mindset we're gonna battle and try to send it back to Chicago and play from there." The Bucks will look to take advantage of the Bulls sloppy play, Milwaukee would force 17.4 turnovers per contest this year and Chicago has given up an average of 17.3 over the first three. Note that Chicago has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of 16 this year after three or more consecutive victories, while Milwaukee has seen the total stay below the posted number in 13 of 20 in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and in seven of 11 as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

Additionally, take note that Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER the number in 26 of 47 this year vs. good offensive teams that score 99-plus points per contest, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of eight this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. I think the writing is on the wall and a defensive battle is in the cards, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp move in Game 5.

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