PREMIUM
AAA's SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION!
(NCAAB) Southern Methodist vs. Connecticut,
02/18/2016 3:00 PM, Score: 62 - 68
Point Spread: -3.00 | -106.00 Connecticut (Home)
Result: Win
Point Spread: -3.00 | -106.00 Connecticut (Home)
Result: Win
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Connecticut.
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
A great start, but a little inconsistent lately: The Mustangs opened the season 18-0 and were the final team in the country to lose a game, but SMU has since alternated wins with losses over its last six. And after beating a good Gonzaga team 69-60 in Dallas on Saturday in non-conference play, there's no question in our minds that this one does indeed set up as a bit of a letdown spot for the visitors (remember, SMU is not able to participate in any postseason basketball because of NCAA violations).
A massive game for the home side: UConn is firmly on the bubble right now but a victory today would likely cement its ticket to the Big Dance. The Huskies have yet to beat a ranked team this season and today's matchup with SMU will be their last chance to do so. Upon comes in with momentum as it would hold on for a crucial 75-73 win over Tulsa on Saturday.
Strength against strength: It's true that SMU has the AAC's top offense, but note that UConn ranks second nationally in field-goal defense at 37.3 percent.
ATS statistics: Note that SMU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600; it's also only 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a winning SU record and 1-7 ATS in its last eight following an ATS victory and finally a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four following a straight win. And note that UConn is 23-10 TS in its last 33 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 (and note that the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series).
The bottom line: It's payback time, as SMU beat UConn 62-54 in last year's AAC Tournament final, which kept the Huskies out of the NCAA Tournament a year after winning it. Play on CONNECTICUT!
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
A great start, but a little inconsistent lately: The Mustangs opened the season 18-0 and were the final team in the country to lose a game, but SMU has since alternated wins with losses over its last six. And after beating a good Gonzaga team 69-60 in Dallas on Saturday in non-conference play, there's no question in our minds that this one does indeed set up as a bit of a letdown spot for the visitors (remember, SMU is not able to participate in any postseason basketball because of NCAA violations).
A massive game for the home side: UConn is firmly on the bubble right now but a victory today would likely cement its ticket to the Big Dance. The Huskies have yet to beat a ranked team this season and today's matchup with SMU will be their last chance to do so. Upon comes in with momentum as it would hold on for a crucial 75-73 win over Tulsa on Saturday.
Strength against strength: It's true that SMU has the AAC's top offense, but note that UConn ranks second nationally in field-goal defense at 37.3 percent.
ATS statistics: Note that SMU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600; it's also only 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a winning SU record and 1-7 ATS in its last eight following an ATS victory and finally a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four following a straight win. And note that UConn is 23-10 TS in its last 33 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 (and note that the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series).
The bottom line: It's payback time, as SMU beat UConn 62-54 in last year's AAC Tournament final, which kept the Huskies out of the NCAA Tournament a year after winning it. Play on CONNECTICUT!
AAA Sports
