AAA's 10* IVY-LEAGUE "ASSASSIN!" (+$44.5K Run w/ 10*'s!)
(NCAAB) Harvard vs. Columbia, 02/19/2016 1:00 PM, Score: 76 - 90
Point Spread: 7.50 | -105.00 Harvard (Away)
Result: Loss
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Harvard.

We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Desperation breeds motivation: The Crimson will be eager to break out of their funk, having dropped six of their last seven.

Revenge factor: Harvard had won five straight in this series before Columbia took the first meeting of this season, 57-55 on the road on January 30th.

Tough defensive play: Harvard has been all over the map as far as its consistency on the offensive end of the floor, but one constant has been its defensive play, it allows an average of just 66 points a game, ranked 48th in the country.

Classic letdown spot: The Lions are 6-2 in Ivy League play, but come in off a tough loss to Princeton last time out. It's hard to gain momentum and once lost, it's even harder to get it back.

ATS statistics: Note that Harvard is 2-1 ATS in its last three in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Columbia is just 3-4 ATS vs. conference opponents and only 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season.

The bottom line: A hungry HARVARD team catches Columbia complacent and while we won't be so bold as to call for the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

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