PREMIUM
AAA's COAST-TO-COAST TOTAL EXPRESS - 22-10 +$9,308 ALL L7 DAYS!
(NBA) Phoenix vs. Miami,
03/03/2016 2:30 PM, Score: 92 - 108
Total: 211.00 | -105.00 Over
Result: Win
Total: 211.00 | -105.00 Over
Result: Win
This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST TOTAL EXPRESS on the UNDER between the Phoenix Suns and the Miami Heat.
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Best defense in the East: Despite a recent offensive up-tick, the Heat have been getting the job done this year with their smothering defensive play, allowing an Eastern conference low 96.9 PPG. That mark actually ranks second in the league overall. And note, Miami sits near the bottom of the NBA in scoring, averaging just 97.5 PPG and last with a 31.9 three-point percentage.
Classic letdown spot: With Joe Johnson on board, Miami has looked a lot better offensively, but there's no question in our minds that this one sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side, which has won two straight and which is coming off a season-high and franchise record 67.5 percent shooting performance in Tuesday's 129-111 home win over the Bulls. It's not too hard to imagine Miami coming out a little complacent here in facing their lowly Western conference opponent today and especially with a home and home set starting at Philadelphia tomorrow night.
Recent history: The last time these teams met, Miami pulled away for the 103-95 victory on January 8th. Suffice it to say, we're expecting a similarly hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring game here.
ATS statistics: Note that Phoenix has seen the total go UNDER the number in 16 of 29 this season after allowing 105 points or more and in three of four after playing to three or more consecutive OVERs, while Miami has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of 23 non-conference games and in eight of 11 after scoring 105 points or more.
The bottom line: This one has the feel of more of a "chess match," than a "run and gun shootout," as we look for the home side to control the pace from the outset and for this total to indeed go UNDER the number once the final horn blares.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Best defense in the East: Despite a recent offensive up-tick, the Heat have been getting the job done this year with their smothering defensive play, allowing an Eastern conference low 96.9 PPG. That mark actually ranks second in the league overall. And note, Miami sits near the bottom of the NBA in scoring, averaging just 97.5 PPG and last with a 31.9 three-point percentage.
Classic letdown spot: With Joe Johnson on board, Miami has looked a lot better offensively, but there's no question in our minds that this one sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side, which has won two straight and which is coming off a season-high and franchise record 67.5 percent shooting performance in Tuesday's 129-111 home win over the Bulls. It's not too hard to imagine Miami coming out a little complacent here in facing their lowly Western conference opponent today and especially with a home and home set starting at Philadelphia tomorrow night.
Recent history: The last time these teams met, Miami pulled away for the 103-95 victory on January 8th. Suffice it to say, we're expecting a similarly hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring game here.
ATS statistics: Note that Phoenix has seen the total go UNDER the number in 16 of 29 this season after allowing 105 points or more and in three of four after playing to three or more consecutive OVERs, while Miami has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of 23 non-conference games and in eight of 11 after scoring 105 points or more.
The bottom line: This one has the feel of more of a "chess match," than a "run and gun shootout," as we look for the home side to control the pace from the outset and for this total to indeed go UNDER the number once the final horn blares.
AAA Sports
