AAA's 10* MONDAY NIGHT *BIG TIGER* (+$38K BIG TICKET 10* RUN!)
(NCAAF) Ole Miss vs. Florida State, 09/05/2016 4:00 PM, Score: 34 - 45
Point Spread: 6.00 | -105.00 Ole Miss (Away)
Result: Loss
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Ole Miss.

Setting the scene: Both teams are ranked and each are coming off 10-3 seasons. We think this one is going to be war right down until the final whistle, a contest which could very likely be decided by whichever team has the ball in its possession in the final moments. In this expected competitive affair, we're going to recommend grabbing the points.

Mississippi: The Rebels catch a break as this is in fact a neutral site game, being played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. Ole Miss put up an average of 334.7 YPG through the air last year and also racked up an additional 183.1 YPG on the ground. The offense is led by QB Chad Kelly, who notched 4042 passing yards and a 31:13 TD:INT ratio. The unit does have a couple of holes to fill because of players leaving to go to the NFL, but Markell Pack, DaMarkus Lodge and Damore'ea Stringfellow are set to the fill the void at the WR position. Defensively the team was pretty good, allowing 258.8 through the air and a much better 127.1 YPG on the ground. The run defense is going to have to be sharp today in facing one of the top RB's in the nation.

Florida State: FSU averaged 255.8 YPG passing last year and 168.2 YPG on the round. Heisman trophy candidate Dalvin Cook will be leaned upon heavily in this game and throughout the season. And that's because the Seminoles will be starting a freshman under center, Deondre Francois is expected to be among the best in the conference by the end of the season, but he's being thrown directly into the fire in having to face one of the best defensive units in the SEC in his first game.

The bottom line: Note that the Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine neutral-site games, while FSU is 0-5 ATS in the same position. We think Ole Miss can win the battle in the trenches and at the point of attack, putting the pressure on Francois to step up. Kelly is tested and proven and he'll be the difference maker today. While we wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, as stated off the top, we're going to grab as many points as we can in this one. Play on OLE MISS.

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