AAA's SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH (200-137 +$16,289 ALL MLB YTD!)
(MLB) Cincinnati vs. St. Louis, 09/28/2016 4:15 PM, Score: 2 - 1
Money Line: 140.00 Cincinnati (Away)
Result: Win
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Cincinnati Reds.

Setting the scene: We had a play on the Cardinals last night and they'd pull away for the 12-5 victory. We're going the other way today though as we think Anthony DeSclafani has a big advantage over the inconsistent Mike Leake.

DeSclafani: He's 8-5 with a 3.38 ERA. He's 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six career outings against St. Louis. He's struggled down the stretch a bit, but note that he's 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA on the road and is 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA in all night games.

Leake: He's 9-11 with a 4.72 ERA. He most recently gave up five earned runs off seven hits over just three innings in a 5-0 loss to the Cubs on Friday. Leake is stumbling to the finish line, having given up 14 runs on 29 hits over 19.2 innings spanning four starts. Note that he's 2-6 with a 4.56 ERA at home.

The bottom line: Leake owns an 8.31 ERA against the Reds this year. The pressure is on St. Louis, as it sits a game back of San Fran and 1.5 back of the Mets with five games remaining. I think the home side falters tonight and the visitors successfully play the role of spoiler. Play on the REDS.

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