PREMIUM
AAA's FRIDAY NIGHT 3-GAME DESTRUCTION PASS (67% in Wk 5 & 71% in Wk 6!)
(NCAAF) Duke vs. Louisville,
10/14/2016 3:00 PM, Score: 14 - 24
Point Spread: 34.50 | -108.00 Duke (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 34.50 | -108.00 Duke (Away)
Result: Win
This is a 5* play on Duke.
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics:
Note that Duke is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games played on turf, 8-5 ATS in its last 13 on the road and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 when playing the role of underdog, while Louisville is just 2-3 ATS in its last five following its bye week and interestingly, only 3-6 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October.
The bottom line: We're unforunately saddled with a poor line in this one (29.5), but regardless, we think Duke's offense can match pace against a Louisville team which struggled with consistency in its loss to Clemson. Play on the BLUE DEVILS.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics:
Note that Duke is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games played on turf, 8-5 ATS in its last 13 on the road and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 when playing the role of underdog, while Louisville is just 2-3 ATS in its last five following its bye week and interestingly, only 3-6 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October.
The bottom line: We're unforunately saddled with a poor line in this one (29.5), but regardless, we think Duke's offense can match pace against a Louisville team which struggled with consistency in its loss to Clemson. Play on the BLUE DEVILS.
AAA Sports
