PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NBA Tuesday Totals Terminator
(NBA) Utah vs. LA Clippers,
04/18/2017 6:30 PM, Score: 91 - 99
Total: 195.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Loss
Total: 195.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Loss
This total is lower than the closing 198 from Game 1. There were 192 points in that opening matchup won by the Jazz, 97-95.
I understand why the oddsmaker adjusted this Game 2 total lower than in Game 1. Early activity in the marketplace has been to the under making the total even lower.
Both the oddsmaker and marketplace are over compensating. They are each overreacting to Game 1. The Clippers haven't had a total this low since Christmas Day when they played Dallas, the lowest-scoring team in the NBA.
Prior to Saturday's opener, the Jazz had scored 103 or more points in seven of their last nine games. The Clippers had scored at least 112 points in six of their previous seven games.
The Jazz are expecting the Clippers to play very aggressive this game. I agree. That starts with Chris Paul, who very much remains an elite point guard. On paper, Paul had a good Game 1 with 25 points and 11 assists. But he still could have been more aggressive. The Clippers' point total was really hurt by J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford missing 12 of 19 shots from the floor and six of seven shots from 3-point range. They are much better scorers than that.
Utah finished as the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. A big reason for that was center Rudy Gobert. He's a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors after leading the league in blocked shots and finishing fourth in rebounding. Gobert, though, is out with a hyperextended knee.
Gobert's absence is going to open the middle for Paul to penetrate. The Clippers are going to get their points here playing at home down 0-1 in the series. The question is can Utah put up its share of points to get this total over?
I believe they will. Point guard George Hill is finally healthy. He shot well in Game 1 making 7 of 13 shots from the floor. The Jazz's second best point guard is Raul Neto. He's been out for more than a week due to a sprained ankle. But he said he's ready to play today.
The Jazz have to play more small ball minus Gobert. That means a quicker pace and more minutes for Derrick Favors, who made 7 of 10 shots from the field in Game 1, and veteran Joe Johnson. Johnson still can score as evidenced by his 9 of 14 shooting from the floor in Game 1, but his defense has slipped. So he's good for the over.
I understand why the oddsmaker adjusted this Game 2 total lower than in Game 1. Early activity in the marketplace has been to the under making the total even lower.
Both the oddsmaker and marketplace are over compensating. They are each overreacting to Game 1. The Clippers haven't had a total this low since Christmas Day when they played Dallas, the lowest-scoring team in the NBA.
Prior to Saturday's opener, the Jazz had scored 103 or more points in seven of their last nine games. The Clippers had scored at least 112 points in six of their previous seven games.
The Jazz are expecting the Clippers to play very aggressive this game. I agree. That starts with Chris Paul, who very much remains an elite point guard. On paper, Paul had a good Game 1 with 25 points and 11 assists. But he still could have been more aggressive. The Clippers' point total was really hurt by J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford missing 12 of 19 shots from the floor and six of seven shots from 3-point range. They are much better scorers than that.
Utah finished as the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. A big reason for that was center Rudy Gobert. He's a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors after leading the league in blocked shots and finishing fourth in rebounding. Gobert, though, is out with a hyperextended knee.
Gobert's absence is going to open the middle for Paul to penetrate. The Clippers are going to get their points here playing at home down 0-1 in the series. The question is can Utah put up its share of points to get this total over?
I believe they will. Point guard George Hill is finally healthy. He shot well in Game 1 making 7 of 13 shots from the floor. The Jazz's second best point guard is Raul Neto. He's been out for more than a week due to a sprained ankle. But he said he's ready to play today.
The Jazz have to play more small ball minus Gobert. That means a quicker pace and more minutes for Derrick Favors, who made 7 of 10 shots from the field in Game 1, and veteran Joe Johnson. Johnson still can score as evidenced by his 9 of 14 shooting from the floor in Game 1, but his defense has slipped. So he's good for the over.
