Stephen Nover's NFL Thursday Top Ticket - 12-2 (86%) NFL Season
(NFL) Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland, 09/22/2022 8:15 PM, Score: 17 - 29
Point Spread: 4.50 | -110.00 Pittsburgh (Away)
Result: Loss
Points especially matter here. That's usually the case with a total Under 40.

I'll accept this many in this division matchup. The Steelers have flaws, yes. But the Browns can't be trusted - nor should they be - in this point spread range.

As bad as Mitch Trubisky is, I'll take him above Jacoby Brissett.

The Steelers are giving up 18.5 points per game, which includes an overtime period against the Bengals. The Browns rank 26th in defensive scoring allowing 27.5 points per game.

The short week may work against the Browns. They still could be reeling from blowing a 13-point lead with 1:55 left in a shocking, 31-30, home loss to the Jets this past Sunday.

Najee Harris is off to a slow start. Harris shredded the Browns for 279 rushing yards last season helping Pittsburgh defeat Cleveland twice. If Harris can get back on pace that would relieve pressure on Trubisky, who has much better receiving targets than Brissett has. Harris catches a break with Browns defensive end Jadeveon Clowney ruled out with an ankle injury.

The Steelers have covered five of the last six in the series. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

Mike Tomlin gets a strong checkmark in the coaching department against Kevin Stefanski. The Steelers have covered 63 percent of the time when getting points during the Tomlin era.