Fresno State has won just one of its last six Mountain West games, a 74-69 triumph at Air Force on 2/21 where they were 2.5 point dogs. But I like FSU here as their slow pace and solid guard play should work to their advantage against a Colorado State team that offers little in the way of rim protection.

This is also a big revenge game for Fresno State, who has lost the last nine matchups with Colorado State and failed to cover any of the last 10. Looking at the matchup, there’s really no reason for the one-sided domination, which seems rather random. The last meeting ended up being a three-point game, 60-57.

I expect this to be another low-scoring slog. It should be noted that Colorado State hasn’t topped 60 points in any of its last three games away from Fort Collins.

Fresno State has been pretty unlucky all season when it comes to opponents shooting the three. Teams have hit 37.5% against them from behind the arc, but fortunately CSU shoots just 29.7% from distance away from home.

I just don’t think you can trust Colorado State laying points, even a small number like this. Fresno State has averaged 94 points over its last two games, and while that’s skewed by facing Chicago State in the last game, I like the Bulldogs plus the points in this one. 8*