Don’t go expecting many points in this Atlantic 10 Tournament Final. It’s all on the line this afternoon for both Virginia Commonwealth (the A-10 regular season champion) and Dayton (the preseason favorite). Neither team has done enough to earn an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament. So both need to win here.

VCU is 17th in the country in defensive efficiency. Dayton is a not-too-shabby 56th.

Dayton also plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country (352nd out of 363 teams). Their games only average 62.6 possessions. VCU isn’t too far ahead of that at 68.2.

We’ve seen some lights out shooting from both teams in this tournament, but my view is that it will halt Sunday. Dayton shot 60% against Fordham yesterday and will regress hard from that number here. VCU has been scoring considerably more than its season average the last seven games and is also due for some offensive regression.

The teams split the two regular season meetings, each winning on the road. Those games saw 120 and 125 total points scored. 10*