ROGERS' 10* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK >> 94-55-1 CBB RUN! 10-3 L13!
(NCAAB) Northwestern vs. UCLA, 03/18/2023 8:40 PM, Score: 63 - 68
Total: 126.00 | -106.00 Under
Result: Loss
UCLA demolished UNC Asheville in the first round 86-53, easily covering the 17-point spread. Northwestern, who opened as a dog but ended up being bet to a favorite, defeated Boise State 65-57 and obviously covered the number as well.
I expect this to be a low-scoring contest. Oddsmakers do too. But I think the O/U is too high here considering both teams are 235th or lower in adjusted tempo and in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. UCLA is actually #1 in the country in defensive efficiency per KenPom.
The Bruins shot 54% against UNC Asheville, which they won’t do again here. But I do expect another strong defensive effort, similar to the L3 games where they’ve allowed 33%, 36% and 37% shooting to go along with 56, 61 and 53 points.
Over the last month, Northwestern has not gone back to back games without shooting below 37% once. They shot 49% against Boise State. So recent history suggests they’ll be off here.
UCLA is 4-1 Under following a straight up win by 20 or more points. 10*