The NL-East leading Washington Nationals set the second placed New York Mets another game back as they won the opener of a three-game set at Nationals Park 7-2 Monday. I think the home-team is coming in underrated for tonight's match-up and I like the Nats chances of recording an upset.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Nats hand the ball to 22 year old Joe Ross (2-1, 2.66 ERA) who'll make his fourth start in the majors. He's been decent enough in the previous three and held the Pirates to one run on six hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 4-1 home-win his last start. The Mets will counter with Jacob deGrom (9-6, 2.14 ERA) who's coming off eight scoreless innings at San Francisco on July 8. He's otherwise been far better home at New York than on the road this season and he's been charged with the loss in each of his two starts against the Nats on the year conceding a total of seven runs (five earned) on 11 hits in 11 1/3 innings.

2. Home Cookin' - The Nats are an impressive 27-18 home at Nationals Park for the year and have won eight of their last 10 home-games versus a team with a winning record. The Mets meanwhile have struggled on the road all season long currently holding a 16-31 road-record.

3. X-Factor - Ian Desmond has had a rough season at the plate so far but perhaps last night's performance is a sign of better things to come when he was 2-for-4 with a homer. He's 2-for-8 with a homer against deGrom in previous match-ups.

Selection: This is a play on the Washington Nationals +1.5 (8*)