The Baltimore Orioles are off back-to-back wins against the Detroit Tigers and are coming into this game looking to move closer to the division-leading New York Yankees in the AL East. I expect this to be an extremely tight contest and I don't mind laying the juice to get the Orioles on the run-line.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Yankees hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi (9-2, 4.50 ERA) who conceded three runs on seven hits in five innings of an 8-6 win at Boston his last start. He's an undefeated 4-0 in eight starts home at Yankee Stadium for the year, but he's been supported with plenty of runs in those contests which might not be the case tonight when the O's can counter with Wei-Yin Chen (4-5, 2.78 ERA). Chen is off five straight quality starts and has held the Yankees to only three runs on nine hits in 13 innings on the year. Eovaldi meanwhile has conceded five runs on 14 hits in 10 2/3 innings against the Orioles.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - While admittedly a rather small sample the Orioles are batting .136 over 38 at bats against Eovaldi while Chen has the current members of the Yankees limited to a .240 batting average over 125 at bats.

3. X-Factor - Caleb Joseph is 15-for-28 in the season series against the Yankees and 4-for-5 against Eovaldi lifetime.

Selection: This is a play on the Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (5*)