The San Diego Padres have won just one of their last five and were annihilated in the opener of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park last night. The Philadelphia Phillies defeated them 7-1 to win a sixth straight head-to-head meeting at home, and they're looking good to record an upset in tonight's match-up.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Padres hand the ball to Colin Rea (2-1, 5.52 ERA) who is making his fourth start ever in the big leagues. He won his first two outings but gave up five runs (four earned) on five hits and two walks in four innings of a 10-3 loss to the Cardinals his last start. This will be his first road start in the majors and that's a situation that can be quite demanding for a rookie. The Phillies will counter with a rookie of their own in Adam Morgan (4-4, 4.43 ERA). The 25 year old southpaw has more games under his belt as he's made 11 starts so far, one against the Padres who he held to two runs (one earned) on six hits and a walk in six innings of a 4-2 win on August 8.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Padres' .238 team batting average against left-handers this season is among the worst marks in baseball, and .238 is exactly what they batted in the previous meeting with Morgan.

3. X-Factor - Jeff Francoeur is 4-for-7 with four RBIs and a run scored in his last three contests following a miserable 0-for-10 stretch.

Selection: This is a play on the Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (8*)