The Atlanta Braves have won just one of their last 12 games and are coming into this game on the back of consecutive losses to the New York Yankees. I think the Bronx Bombers are way too big favorites here though and we're getting a terrific price playing the home team on the run-line.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Yankees hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi (13-2, 4.00 ERA) who's off eight scoreless innings of four-hit ball against the Astros home at Yankee Stadium. Eovalidi's road ERA of 4.94 is almost two full runs higher than his ERA at home though and he was 0-2 in three starts at Turner Field last season. The Braves will counter with Julio Teheran (9-6, 4.29) who is 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA in five starts this month. Teheran is 7-1 behind a 2.71 ERA in 13 home starts this season and has served up just nine homers over his last 15 appearances overall.

2. Home Cookin' - The Braves have won 12 of their last 17 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and they're 6-1 in Teheran's last seven starts as a home underdog in the same span.

3. X-Factor - The Yankees' Mark Teixeira is still out with a bruised right shin and is not expected to be back in the line-up until tomorrow at the very earliest.

Selection: This is a play on the Atlanta Braves +1.5 (10*)