10* Total MASSACRE on OVER Heat/Hornets.

The Miami Heat are on the brink of elimination after the Charlotte Hornets managed to claim the first road-win in this playoff series with a 90-88 win at Miami on Wednesday. This has been a low-scoring series so far, but the total for this game looks a bit low considering the circumstances and I think the score will push over the set total.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Charlotte's Backcourt - The Hornets put up 90 points in Wednesday's win despite Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lin putting up just 25 between them. They did however go off for a combined 55 points the last game home at Time Warner Cable Arena where the whole Hornets team has a far better shooting percentage.

2. Fouling - The spread would suggest a close game, and if that's the case near the end of the game we could see plenty of fouling and free throws driving up the score. Charlotte's 82.5 conversion rate from the foul-line is the best mark of every team in the playoffs.

3. X-Factor - The over is 5-1 in Miami's last six Friday night games and 4-1 in Charlotte's last five.

Selection: This is a play on MIA@CHA to go OVER the total (10*)