The Cubs are sitting in first place in the NL Central, but the second place Pirates are within striking distance. The two teams will wrap up a three game set at PNC Park on Wednesday afternoon. I like Pittsburgh as a home dog in the series finale.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Jon Lester will go for the Cubs, and he's off to a hot start with a record of 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in five starts. He hasn't exactly faced any powerhouse teams during that stretch, seeing Cincinnati twice, Colorado, Atlanta and the Angels. The Pirates will hand the ball to Juan Nicasio, who is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA at home so far.

2. Home Cookin' - The Pirates are 51-25 in their last 76 home games, and they've played well lately winning six of their last eight.

3. X-Factor - The Cubs are 1-4 in Lester's last five road starts versus teams with a winning record

Selection: This is a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (8*)